My Aaron Rodgers Blog

Even though the Packers won by the convincing score of 26-0, I was really disappointed in the way they played the game.  I have basically come to the conclusion that they are not going to improve much as the season progresses.  In fact, I do not believe they will be able to pick up a wild card spot playing like this.

The problems that the Packers had against the Lions are the same problems that they have had all season long.  My posts are beginning to sound like broken records.  The Packers had an astounding number of penalties, sacks, turnovers, and dropped passes that halted scoring drives in their tracks.  For all the talent and potential that is on the offensive side of the ball, that is also where most of our problems lie.  The only bright spot in the game was our defense.  The Lions are pretty much pathetic and the Packers should have scored more touchdowns.
 
Bigby's return was indeed the only bright spot for the Packers.  The impact was evident immediately.

Having two starting caliber safeties really allows the defensive coordinator to open up his complete playbook.  Capers was able to do a lot of different things with the corners that he was not able to do when Bigby was not there.  When Bigby was gone, Capers had to keep both Woodson and Harris back in coverage because the back up safety was so shaky.  But Bigby's presence allows Capers to bring either or both of them in on confusing blitz packages.  This is essential for the 3-4 defensive scheme that the Packers are trying to run. 
 
But that is where the encouraging things stop.  Detroit entered the game with only five defensive linemen and three of their starters were out.  Given the return of Clifton and the lack of Detroit personnel, Rodgers should have had great protection all game long.  But that simply did not happen.  Rodgers was sacked five times and four times in the first half.  A couple of those were blown blocking assignments and a couple of those were definitely Aaron Rodgers fault.

The offensive line has been horrible this year, but Rodgers must do a better job of feeling the pressure and either moving away from it or throwing the ball away.  A couple of times he simply moved directly into the pressure.  He has done a good job of not throwing picks, but he really needs to spend a lot of time working on throwing the ball away.  
 
To make matters worse Clifton got hurt again.  I do not know for sure how serious it is, but it looked as though he is not going to be available for the ever-important rematch against the Minnesota Vikings on November 1st.  It is not looking good already.  There is almost no way we can win that game without Clifton there.  It will be really hard even if he does play.
 
The Packers running game is also very very poor.  They could not run the ball at all until the fourth quarter. And that is just because the Detroit defensive line was not able to get any breaks the entire game, and they were not even the starters!  I do not know what is worse, the run blocking or the pass blocking.

Either way, Thompson had better be aggressive in getting some more decent linemen into Green Bay uniforms in the off-season.  Thompson has had some very good drafts and has put a lot of good players on the Packers roster in short period of time.  However, if he does not do everything in his power to get some better linemen this off-season, then I will definitely jump on the anti-Thompson bandwagon.
 
Amidst all these negatives, what is the worst one of them all?

Clearly the Packers have some bright spots on their team. Aaron Rodgers can clearly be an elite QB and several other young Packers, like Jeremichael Finley and Clay Matthews, also played well in Minnesota. However, the Packers also have some big time problems. And they are the types of problems that will show up in big games. The two primary problems are the offensive line and in the defensive secondary. These just happen to be two areas that get exploited in the big games at the end of the season.

The lack of pass protection is astonishing. I know that Jared Allen is a really good player, but he is not the next Reggie White. It seems that the Packers offensive line has made the opposing teams defensive ends look like some of the greatest pass rushers of all time each and every week. It is really pathetic considering how good Aaron Rodgers could be if he had some protection.

And Speaking of Rodgers, he has already been sacked 20 times this year. Many QBs do not get sacked that many times all year long. That is on pace for a grand total of 80 sacks over the course of the season. I seriously doubt that Rodgers will be able to withstand that kind of beating all season long. I just hope that he does not get hurt so badly that it affects the rest of his career. Also, I have not checked the numbers, but I am guessing that 80 sacks would break a record.

On the defensive side of the ball, it seems that they can only do one thing at a time. Either they are giving up huge yards on the ground like they did in the first three games or they are giving up huge plays to Favre downfield. The Packers defense obviously committed to stopping the run, and I agree with that strategy. They absolutely had to stop Adrien Peterson. But I did not think that our secondary would struggle like it did.

With most of our defenders watching Peterson, there was a lot of one-on-one matchups and blown coverages downfield. And Favre quickly picked them apart for huge back-breaking plays. The safety that is replacing Bigby was consistently out of position and responsible for multiple downfield plays.

Also, I did not know that 3-4 defense must abandon bump and run coverage with the corners. Woodson is more versatile and is doing fine in this new scheme, but Harris is not doing as well. I am not an expert at the 3-4, but they should try to get Harris in some bump and run coverage. It is his greatest strength and right now we are not using it.

Despite all these huge problems, the Packers are not destined to a long and dreadful season.

The 2008 Green Bay Packers season started out pretty good. They jumped out to a 4-3 record early in the season. From there they struggled mightily only winning two more games the rest of the year. They had a very good offense, but the defense was downright bad. Aaron Rodgers filled in admirably for Packer legend Brett Favre. However, it didn't translate into a successful season for the Pack. Did the Packers do enough after the season to justify any hope of winning it all this year? If you're looking at free football picks, you probably won't put any money on them winning the Super Bowl this year.

The Good News: The best thing about this year for the Packers isn't really about who they picked up, but who they still have. For one, Aaron Rodgers has a full year under his belt as the starter. Since the Packers were bad last year, many people don't realize that Rodgers quietly had one of the best seasons of any quarterback in the league. If you play fantasy football, you might not know that Rodgers was actually the second best quarterback in fantasy last year. This means he was putting up some monster numbers.

In addition to Rodgers, Ryan Grant is back at full strength from the beginning of this year. Last year, he held out through training camp over a contract dispute. He didn't get off to a good start and it took him half the season to get back to form. Once he got going again, he was one of the best backs in the league again. This time around, he should be at full-steam from the beginning.

They also added some help on the defensive side of the ball with nose tackle B.J. Raji and linebacker Clay Matthews in the draft. These two players should go a long way towards shoring up the defense. If they can contribute right away, it might be enough to help the offense win some games.

The Bad News: For a 6-10 team, the Packers were awfully inactive during the off-season. Apparently they feel like they already have most of what they need in house and it just needs to develop. However, that's a very risky approach to take. When you lose 10 games and the only free agents you bring in are a safety and a center, you're really not trying to do much.

Something else to be concerned about is quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Although he had a great individual season, he didn't lead the team to victories. The year before, with Favre, they were 12-4. All they did was change quarterbacks and went 6-10. While Rodgers is obviously talented, there are questions about whether he knows how to win in this league.

Outlook: If you're looking for NFL picks, expect the Packers to be middle of the road in the NFC North this year. The Bears and the Vikings will likely be ahead of them when it's all said and done.

At least the Packers should not have to face the pressure of high expectations now. I think that may have had a part in all the penalties and dropped passes. The only benefit to coming out and making it very clear that you are a not a good team is that the expectations are lowered. Maybe our linemen might be able to play a little bit more loose. I am trying very hard to find a silver lining here.

For all the Packer fans who were unable to fully interpret the Cincinnati game: the Packers season is going to be a long and painful one. Especially for Aaron Rodgers. It is really only a matter of time before he ends up on the IR or perhaps even the morgue after the Minnesota game. The Packers offensive line seems to be one of the worst ever assembled in the history of the NFL.

The Minnesota defensive line is so unbelievably good that I will be truly surprised to see Aaron Rodgers complete the game. I just hope that he does not end up with any serious injuries that could ruin his career. Anyway, the fact that the Packers cant block anyone should be obvious to the world by now. And anyone who knows football worth a lick, knows that you cannot go far without the big boys up front.

The direct consequence of this crappy offensive line is that not much should be expected of the team. The offensive tackles now know that the whole world knows they suck monkey balls. Now they should be able to take the role of the underdog. The opposing teams wont take them quite as seriously and we may be able to surprise a team or two.

Sometimes playing like total crap can inspire a team to start playing really really well. I would also like to clarify that I am suggesting that there really is only one unit that I believe is playing like total crap and that is the offensive line. I do not think that Rodgers is playing bad. He has not had any time. So, What will the end result be? When it all comes together, I believe this will be an extremely disappointing year. It is going to be difficult to watch because the Packers will have a couple of rebound games where they look pretty good and maybe only give up three sacks or something like that.

But this can only end badly. And on top of that Brett Favre is probably going to win a lot of games this year for Minnesota.

The '09 season has to be considered pretty successful for the Packers, as they won five more games than in 2008 (Aaron Rodgers' first year as the starting QB) and earned a playoff spot before their defense was gutted by Kurt Warner in the Wild-Card round against the Arizona Cardinals.

That game did show what Green Bay really has in store for 2010 and what could be a big concern. On the bright side, Rodgers was nearly as good as Warner in that game and Rodgers emerged as a Top 5 quarterback during the regular season, ranking fourth in the NFL in yards (4,434), rating (103.2), touchdown passes (seven) and with the fewest interceptions (seven) of any quarterback with at least 200 attempts. Pretty much all of Rodgers' weapons from last year are back although 35-year-old No. 2 WR Donald Driver might be slowing down as he tailed off in a big way at the end of last season.

Warner went balistic on the Green Bay secondary, especially with Al Harris hurt. Charles Woodson and Harris, one of the best tandems in the NFL for years, are both getting up there in age with Woodson turning 34 this season and Harris during 36. I'm probably picking too much on Woodson considering he was named the NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2009 and had nine picks and three TDs. Plus he reportedly re-dedicated himself this offseason. Harris, however, is coming off major knee surgery that ended his 2009 season early.

That Green Bay defense will be down two key players this season as Aaron Kampman, a two-time Pro Bowler, is now in Jacksonville (he also suffered a season-ending injury in November last season) and Johnny Jolly was suspended without pay for 2010 after violating the league's substance abuse policy. Although if there's one area the Pack can withstand a few hits, it's probably on the defensive line.

The oddsmakers have Green Bay's wins total at 9.5 for NFL season win totals. What's the best bet there? Let's check the 2010 Green Bay Packers schedule (all times Eastern):

Week 1: Sunday, Sep. 12, at Philadelphia, 4:15 PM
Week 2: Sunday, Sep. 19, Buffalo, 1:00 PM
Week 3: Monday, Sep. 27, at Chicago, 8:30 PM
Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 3, Detroit, 1:00 PM
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 10, at Washington, 1:00 PM
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 17, Miami, 1:00 PM
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 24, Minnesota, 8:20 PM
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 31, at NY Jets, 1:00 PM
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 7, Dallas, 8:20 PM
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 21, at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 28, at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 5, San Francisco, 1:00 PM
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 12, at Detroit, 1:00 PM
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 19, at New England, 8:20 PM
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 26, NY Giants, 4:15 PM
Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 2, Chicago, 1:00 PM

This schedule ranks as the 22nd hardest in the NFL with an opponents' 2009 cumulative winning percentage of.488 (125-131).

Checking the football betting lines for the first six games, there's really no reason Green Bay should be any worse than 4-2. The Pack get the benefit of being the first opponent of new Eagles starter Kevin Kolb (that game is currently a 'pick'em'), and nobody knows who the quarterback of the Bills will be. The Packers swept the Bears last season by nearly identical scores (21-14 and 21-15), and that matchup will be in prime time for the fifth straight season with the first meeting between the two being No. 180 in the all-time series. This is the 18th consecutive season the Packers have appeared on "Monday Night Football," the NFC's longest streak.

The Pack better be no worse than 4-2 because they could easily fall into a three-game skid (albeit unlikely) entering the bye week with games against Super Bowl contenders in the Vikings, Jets and Cowboys. Of course, that Minnesota game will be Brett Favre's second-ever game as a visitor at Lambeau. He led the Vikings to a 30-23 win over Green Bay in a Monday night game at Minnesota last season and then a 38-28 win at Lambeau.

Green Bay has the benefit of an extra week to prepare for the rematch with Minnesota (the Vikes aren't off the same week) in a game that could well determine the NFC North. Week 10 is the latest a team can have a bye, by the way, and it's the latest the Pack have ever had theirs. Four road games in five weeks is pretty rare, but Green Bay is 18-11 overall on the road under Mike McCarthy from Nov. 15 and beyond. Then the Packers finish with back-to-back home games for only the second time since 1923. Since 1998, the Packers have finished the season against the Bears three times, all of them victories in Chicago.

NFL Handicapping makes this look like a 10-6-type schedule for Green Bay, which may or may not be enough to win the NFC North (I predicted 10-6 for Minnesota as well), but it should be enough for a return trip to the playoffs. Green Bay is currently a slight favorite (+125) over the Vikings to win the North and +650 to win the NFC (tied with Minnesota behind New Orleans and Dallas).